Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research ›› 2013, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (46): 8133-8140.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-4344.2013.46.025
Li Sen, Huang Hui-ming, Xu Hao, Huang Jian-ya
Online:
2013-11-12
Published:
2013-11-30
About author:
Li Sen☆, Studying for doctorate, Assistant researcher, Jiangsu Institute of Sports Science, Nanjing 210033, Jiangsu Province, China
lisenjstz@163.com
Supported by:
Projects of Science and Technology Support Program of Jiangsu Province, No. BE2010746*; Social Development Projects of Science and Technology Agency of Jiangsu Province, No. BE2012773*
CLC Number:
Li Sen, Huang Hui-ming, Xu Hao, Huang Jian-ya. Ten-year prospective study on adult obesity in Jiangsu province[J]. Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research, 2013, 17(46): 8133-8140.
2.1 肥胖率横断面调查分析结果 通过对3次横断面调查的数据进行分析,结果如表1所示:总体来看,从20岁组至45岁组各相同年龄段间,2000年、2005年与2010年3次调查的成年人肥胖率差异均存在显著性意义(P < 0.05)。从2000年到2010年,相同年龄段间人群的肥胖率逐渐升高。而50岁以上年龄组的肥胖率在这3次调查中没有明显上升(P > 0.05)。另外,城市人群在20岁组到35岁组4个年龄段间出现随着调查年份的不同,肥胖率逐渐上升的趋势(P < 0.05),而在40岁以后肥胖率在这3次调查中没有明显增高(P > 0.05)。同城市相比,农村各年龄段的肥胖率均低于城市。但是农村人群在同一年龄组(从20岁组到65岁组)上,均表现出随着调查年份的变化,肥胖率逐次上升的变化趋势(P < 0.01)。因此农村将是今后防控肥胖率继续增长的重点地区。"
2.2 肥胖率出生队列分析结果 对1931-1935年队列到1976-1980年队列等10个队列的追踪分析,见表2。全人群从1946-1950年队列到1976-1980年队列的肥胖率从2000年、2005年到2010年逐渐上升(P < 0.05),提示在这7个年份段出生的人近10年来肥胖比例逐年升高,应该是控制肥胖的主要目标人群。而1931-1935年队列到1941-1945年队列等3个人群在近10年的肥胖率并没有明显增加,在这3个年份段出生的人不是导致成年人肥胖率逐年上升的主要对象。 另外,从城市和农村不同出生队列的肥胖率变化来看,城市的肥胖率从1946-1950年队列直到1976-1980年队列在近10年都是逐渐上升的(P < 0.05),但是农村从1941-1945年队列开始,直到1976-1980年队列都有肥胖率增高问题(P < 0.05),提示农村从1941年及以后出生的人都是肥胖高发人群,是控制肥胖增长的重点人群。而城市肥胖高发人群的最大出生年份要比农村年轻5岁,即从1946年及以后出生的人才是肥胖高发人群。"
从横断面分析可以初步得出不同监测时期对体质量指数存在影响。另外,体质量指数还受年龄因素的影响。但是年龄对体质量指数的作用(横断面研究显示:55-60岁之前,体质量指数与年龄呈正相关,之后呈负相关的趋势),还需进一步通过队列研究来澄清。 2.4 体质量指数纵向队列分析结果 以5岁为年龄间隔,将调查人群分为10个出生队列(注:只有其中9个队列参与分析,1935-1931年队列没有追踪),即:1980-1976年队列、1975-1971年队列一直到1935-1931年队列。对这10个出生队列从2000年纵向追踪10年分析其体质量指数的变化见图2与图3。1980-1976年队列、1975-1971年队列、1970-1966年队列和1965-1961年队列4个人群的体质量指数从2000年到2010年10年间均有较为明显的上升,而1960-1956年队列、1955-1951年队列、1950-1946年队列、1945-1941年队列和1940-1936年队列5个人群的体质量指数从2000年到2010年10年间变化不大,没有明显的上升。 从队列分析可以看出,各队列在10年间的体质量指数水平都有不同程度的上升,只是其中1980-1976年到1965-1961年的4个队列的体质量指数增长幅度更大,而1960-1956年和1940-1936年的5个队列的体质量指数增长较小且增幅逐渐趋缓。但是各个队列均没有出现随着年龄的增长体质量指数下降的趋势。"
2.5 肥胖率年龄-期间-队列定量分析结果 从表3可以看出,以20-25岁组作为基准组,假设参数估计值等于0。25-30岁及以上年龄组随着年龄的增加,发生肥胖的危险性逐渐增大。OR值分别是20岁组的1.45倍、1.85倍、2.25倍、2.81倍……4.16倍。观察时期相比较,2000-2004年与2005-2010年观察时期的作用并不明显,而且与1995-1999年相比没有统计学差异。以1976-1980年出生队列作为基准组,假设参数估计值等于0。1951-1955年及其之后出生的队列发生肥胖的危险性逐渐减弱,而且这些队列与1976-1980年出生队列相比没有统计学差异。同1976-1980年出生队列相比,从1946-1950年队列到1931-1935年队列发生肥胖的危险性逐渐增强。在所有的出生队列中,1936-1940年出生的队列肥胖病的危险性最高。"
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